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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.