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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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