Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average number of daily homicides monthly in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official data. Nevertheless, security analysts have warned that homicide figures may not indicate better national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, explaining that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly an issue because it could mask periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.